Saturday 7 September 2013

Lethal Force (Betfred Sprint Cup)

The SpeedRatings.com team were eagerly awaiting the re-appearance of the flying grey Lethal Force. A four year old colt who set a new track record when winning at Newmarket over 6f on the 13th July 2013, he travelled over to France following this run to finish a brilliant second to Moonlight Cloud over a less than ideal trip of 7f and now back on English shores once more over his preferred trip of 6f.


He received a sensational speedrating from speedratings.com of 143 for his record breaking performance at Newmarket, clearly defining him as one, if not the fastest sprinter to ever race over 6f at horseracing HQ.

The Betfred Sprint Cup looked like an ideal opportunity for this spectacular colt to notch up another Group 1 win. Society Rock (last year's winner) decided to take a detour and did not re-appear to defend his title so at first glance this race looked like an easier race than when winning at Newmarket. The speedratings.com money was down...

However, things did not go to plan for Lethal Force in the Sprint Cup, finishing only 9th well beaten behind the hugely impressive Gordon Lord Byron, who forged clear in the final furlong winning very cosily.


The speedratings team were scratching their heads, how could the top sprinter only manage 9th today, behind Gordon Lord Byron who Lethal Force had comfortably beaten several times before in the past? Something obviously had gone wrong with Lethal Force but was the winner greatly flattered by such an easy win, did the stopwatch back up the performance? The speedratings.com ratings were announced later that day, Lethal Force received a rating of 99 for the race and the winner Gordon Lord Byron a sensational 149! An amazing rating which improved greatly upon his previous best rating of 123. So, the win was on merit but Lethal Force was very disappointing. So how did Gordon Lord Byron improve to win this race when he was previously looking like an exposed 120'ish at best sprinter?

Gordon Lord Byron without any doubt prefers some cut in the ground and indeed his three fastest ratings were all achieved on Good to Soft ground. He also appears to be a Haydock specialist recording his fastest rating on firmer ground here, so it could have been a freak case of the planets aligning with the variables of Haydock (his favourite course) and Good to Soft (his favourite going). I don't believe we will see Gordon Lord Byron repeat this amazing performance until the planets align once more but definitely one to pencil into the notebooks for next time he races at Haydock and over Good to Soft ground, maybe later this year or next, surely he will prove to be near unstoppable and could surprise at generous odds if he has been forced to race over firmer ground leading up to the race.

Excuses have already been made for Lethal Force, that the going was too soft for him to act on. Yes, Lethal Force does appear to like the ground firmer than this but he ran really well on 15th May 2013 at York on Good to Soft ground finishing second to Society Rock and earning a fantastic rating of 121 on this ground. Lethal Force ran significantly below this today and his trainer Clive Cox, had commented only just prior to the race that he was really well in himself and he couldn't be happier. So something was amiss with him today, I suspect that he went off a little too fast today on much softer than ideal going, trying to keep tabs with the very speedy Hamza and paid the price, sapping his stamina and blunting his speed, tiring badly inside the final furlong.

Lethal Force is going in to the notebook also, over firmer ground at Newmarket over 6f, he would be difficult to beat.

Congratulations to Gordon Lord Byron and his connections, what an exciting sprinter he is, especially at this time of the year.


Saturday 31 August 2013

Kingman (Solario Stakes)


The speedratings.com team were excited to see the re-appearance of Kingman in the Solario Stakes on Saturday, 31st August following his fantastic speedrating of 114 on his racecourse debut. Such a high speedrating for a racehorse on it's debut run highlights the sparkling potential of this two year old colt, a son of Invincible Spirit.

The speedratings.com team tread with caution for all two year olds even those as talented as Kingman. Often when a horse records such a fantastic rating, they can underperform next time out, especially two year olds who tend to be far more unpredictable than more mature equines. So, at odds of just 2/7, it was not a race in which we were going to get too financially committed but nonetheless an easy win for our TopRated selection Kingman was expected.

We were not disappointed with the comfortable two length victory for Kingman, drawing effortlessly alongside his rivals before asserting his authority in the final furlong. The colt was clearly still very green but a pleasing performance.

The race was not run at a frantic pace, James Doyle Kingman's jockey explained that his rivals did not go very fast early on and he struggled to keep Kingman held up towards the rear. Our speedrating for Kingman for this race was 83, so he did not show quite the potential as on his debut but if he gets a faster early pace in the next race, he is likely to improve upon today's 83.

An exciting prospect...